Прогноз зоны возделывания винограда на европейской территории России в условиях изменения климата

Потепление климата оказалось существенным фактором для виноградарства и виноделия всех виноградарских районов мира. Многие страны рассматривают продвижение виноградарства на север и в горные районы как возможный путь адаптации к потеплению. Факторы, лимитирующие зону виноградарства в России, определены советским ученым Ф.Ф. Давитая в 1948 г. и актуальны до сих пор. Это сумма активных температур выше 10 °С (ΣT₁₀ > 2500 °C), средний из абсолютных минимумов температуры (T_min > –35 °C), продолжительность безморозного периода (L_ff < 150 сут) и гидротермический коэффициент (0.5 < ГТК < 2.5). Значения лимитирующих факторов современной зоны промышленного виноградарства (ЗПВ) соответствуют определенным Ф.Ф. Давитая диапазонам, за исключением Т_min, которая в современной ЗПВ на европейской территории России везде выше –26 °C. Целью исследования было определение возможности продвижения на север границ зоны промышленного виноградарства в современных и прогнозируемых климатических условиях европейской территории России. По суточным данным 1980–2019 гг. для 150 метеостанций Росгидромета рассчитали среднемноголетние значения, тренды и прогнозы к 2050 г. значений лимитирующих факторов ЗПВ, определили точки, лежащие в допустимом для виноградарства диапазоне. В программе QGIS нанесли точки на карту европейской территории России, определили предельную широту. Были рассмотрены варианты с Т_min > –26 °C и Т_min > –35 °C. В 1980–2019 гг. в среднем на европейской территории России наблюдался рост ΣT₁₀, Т_min, L_ff и снижение ГТК. Однако южнее 55° N в ряде точек прослеживалась тенденция к снижению Т_min. Рост теплообеспеченности вегетационного периода на европейской территории России создает предпосылки продвижения промышленного виноградарства к северу от современной предельной широты 46.6° до 51.8° в текущих условиях, а к 2050 г. – до 60.7° N. Кроме того, уже сейчас виноградарство возможно в районе Калининграда (54° N, 20° E). При дополнительных мерах по укрытию на зиму до –35 °С виноградарство возможно до 53.3° N в текущих условиях и до 60.7° N – в прогнозируемых. Возможное снижение минимальной температуры зимы на юге европейской территории России потребует дополнительных мер защиты зимой, а повышение засушливости климата на северо-западном побережье Каспийского моря будет уменьшать площади под неорошаемыми виноградниками.

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